Baltimore Orioles: Overvaluing vs. Undervaluing

I wrote yesterday about the Baltimore Orioles, potential trades, and player value. That last part was almost an add-on, but it’s just as important as anything else. Almost more important if you think about it.

Former GM Andy MacPhail famously said that he wasn’t going to let other teams undervalue his players when it came to trading them away for pieces. And when you want to criticize Dan Duquette for wanting too much in return, keep in mind that the likes of Tillman and Jones are only Orioles because of that attitude.

It’s other teams’ jobs to undervalue your talent. And while it would be tough to undervalue a guy like Manny when it comes to on-field talent, teams could easily argue the point of him only being under team control for one year. But is one year of Manny worth it if he helps you get a title?

That’s how the Orioles have to approach this. Because the fact is that they aren’t in a position where they absolutely have to make a trade. They in fact would prefer to keep Manny on the team through 2018 and continually try to extend him. But if they are going to make a trade, it’s going to be hugely slanted their way. Basically you’re talking about gutting someone’s farm system.

And sometimes teams do their jobs for you – as was the case in the Bedard-for-Jones trade. Bedard was a great pitcher, but Seattle vastly overvalued him. And quite frankly they’re still in the doghouse today partially because of that. So you always have to be careful with trades. And odds are Dan Duquette will be if any are made.

Baltimore Orioles getting calls about Manny Machado

There have been multiple reports this week saying that the Baltimore Orioles have been getting calls from opposing teams regarding Manny Machado. The Birds have no interest in trading Machado. However they’re willing to listen to offers on any player.

And it makes sense that teams are starting to call. The annual winter meetings begin next week in Orlando, FL. The entire baseball world will be there, from coaches, to GM’s, owners, agents, and even a few players. As we all know, we’ll see some deals made over the course of next week. And a few begun.

The obvious question is whether or not the Orioles should trade Machado. And team management knows that the obvious answer to that is NO. The Orioles are a better team with Machado on board. And if they could get some pitching this off season, they’d be a really dangerous team.

However the Catch-22 is that Machado may be the key to getting better pitching. But that’s another story for another day. The Orioles don’t want to trade Machado – officially. However I suspect they’re open to doing so…IF the offer is right.

And by right, I mean that another team would have to blow the Orioles away with an offer. We’d be talking at least one or two top prospects, and pitching prospects at that. The type of prospects which could in theory be ready to come to the big leagues – as in right now.

Many teams and even fans will say that this is overvaluing a guy who’s only under team control for 2018 with his current contract. But this is also one of the top three players in baseball today, and without a doubt the best third baseman in the league. Probably in his generation. Is it possible to overvalue your talent too much? For sure. But you don’t want to let other teams undervalue it either.

Baltimore Orioles: A comeback for Rafael Palmeiro?

Desite his PED suspension in 2005, Rafael Palmeiro was always a fan favorite for the Baltiore Oriole. But at 53 years old, most people would agree that his baseball career is behind him. His playing career, at least.

But yesterday it was reported that Palmeiro was considering a comeback. Uh, come again?! Palmeiro last played in the big leagues in 2005, with the Orioles. He of course was suspended for 50 games that August after testing positive for steroids. He was the first high profile player to get dinged in season, this after he wagged his finger at the United States Congress saying he had never (knowingly) used a PED.

But that’s all behind Palmeiro now. He apparently thinks that he can help a team win. And I would agree – as a coach or instructor. Rafael Palmeiro was a great player, and withstanding the PED suspension he was always good to the fans of Baltimore. But he should stay retired.

In short, I think that no matter how good a shape he’s in, a 53-year old at the professional level would embarrass himself. Mind you, this is just my opinion. Admittedly I haven’t seen Palmeiro work out or hit anytime recently. For all I know he in fact is a freak of nature and could do it. I just think that the odds would be so against him that it would make you question if it’s really worth it.

I’ve always said that the great athletes always know when it’s time to go. I would add that they also know that they should stay retired. But obviously several high profile athletes have come back, Michael Jordan being probably the biggest name in the bunch. And I’m talking specifically about the time he was with the Washington Wizards. I’ll stop short of saying that he embarrassed hiself, but he wasn’t “MJ.” (Not going to lie, I bought a ticket to see him play!)

Magic Johnson did the same a couple of times, as have other athletes. Heck, Terrell Owens has claimed that he could still play in the NFL. I can only imagine how difficult it must be to be at the top of your field, and then suddenly you’re a part of history. But…is it really worth jeapordizing your career numbers to make a comeback well past your prime?!

There’s a place for Rafael Palmeiro in baseball should he want it. I think he’d make a great hitting instructor. Maybe even a good manager at some point. But for his sake, I hope his playing days remain behind him.

Baltimore Orioles: Beware at the winter meetings

The Baltimore Orioles’ contingent, led by Dan Duquette, will head to the annual MLB winter meetings next week. There are a lot of questions surrounding this team, many more so than there probably should be. With a veteran manager and a solid lineup, that is.

Obviously the Orioles stand at a crossroads in the sense that quite a few contracts (including those of the GM and manager) coming off the books following the 2018 season. So there are quite a few moving parts. And quite a few decisions to make.

We know from past experiences that the Orioles will be active in the Rule 5 draft. You can probably bank on it. But again, there are a lot of moving parts. And a lot of outside forces who would like to see the Orioles do certain things.

Namely, other teams would love the opportunity to purchase some of the Orioles’ players. You know, the Machado’s, Schoop’s, Bundy’s, and maybe even the Jones’ of the world. So other GM’s may well be trying to convince Dan Duquette to sell. Even still, perhaps a few will try to convince him to stand pat and that it’s too risky to sell. But too expensive to buy.

Ultimately, every team is out for himself. Another GM may well be offering advice to Duquette and so forth, but in reality he’s trying to come off as such so as to potentially convince Duquette of a plan of attack – which may benefit that other team more than the Orioles. So the Birds have to be careful. Other teams may not be telling them to sell with benevolent reasons.

Ultimately whatever happens, it should be the Orioles’ decision. For their reasons and their reasons only. Because the Orioles are accountable to their fans. Those other teams and GM’s are not.

Baltimore Orioles: More botched personnel moves in sports

Once again, I hope that the Baltimore Orioles were observing a fellow sports franchise (albeit in another sport) these past few days. In this case, the New York Football Giants. They gave us another lesson in how NOT to handle personnel moves.

The Giants fired head coach Ben McAdoo yesterday morning. And let me be frank; McAdoo should have been fired. He probably was never cut out to do the job in the first place. Keep in mind, I don’t cover that team so I’m only watching from afar just like most of you reading this. But from my standpoint he lost the locker room weeks ago.

However last week, McAdoo announced that he was benching quarterback Eli Manning in favor of backup Geno Smith. This turned into a media circus, which eventually led to rumors that McAdoo was going to be relieved of his duties following the teams’ game this past Sunday in Oakland. And in fact, the news came first thing yesterday morning.

However it was also reported that McAdoo had cleared the benching of Manning with owner John Mara prior to pulling the trigger. And in his own commentary yesterday, Mara seemed to back that up. So if that’s the case, why did Mara decide to fire McAdoo?

Again in his commentary, Mara said that the firing had more to do with the record than anything else. But let’s be frank, it was the catalyst. First off, I personally believe that the head coach should have the final say in on-field matters – such as who starts and who sits. I thought that the decision to sit a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback and a perennial pro bowler was a poor one. But it should be the coach’s decision – NOT the owner’s.

However that aside, if McAdoo “cleared” this move with ownership, why is he being held accountable for it by having it cost him his job? I’m not criticizing the decision to fire McAdoo, because while I’m not a fan of changing coaches in season, I don’t think he was cut out to be an NFL coach. But it doesn’t say much for the organization when the owner fires the coach for implementing something on which he signed off.

Again, hopefully the Orioles were paying attention. Peter Angelos may be a lot of things, but to my knowledge he’s never meddled in on-field matters like this. Furthermore he’s never fired someone for doing what he was told to do, or something on which he had signed off. Hopefully that never changes.

Baltimore Orioles: Is New York onto something?

I cover the Baltimore Orioles, but I’ve made my view of New York hiring Aaron Boone very clear. Boone’s a good baseball guy and he comes from a good baseball family. In fact, he was probably a born manager. But at this point he has no experience in the job.

First off, that’s sort of a slap in the fact to guys who have worked their way up the minor leagues or even to become a base coach, bench coach, etc. at the big league level. There are deserving candidates who were passed over in favor of Boone. Guys who have paid their dues in going up the coaching ranks, and are now having to watch an unknown commodity get a shot. That has to be a tough pill to swallow.

But could the joke be on people such as myself? People who think this is a reckless move? I remember the great Chuck Thompson’s speech upon accepting the Ford C. Frick Award and being inducted into the Hall of Fame. He started out by saying that his father had told him once that it’s possible to get so close to the forest that you can’t see the trees…

…which in general is good advice. Could that apply here? I mean – is it possible that perhaps guys who have been coaches for some times have become so jaded by how things are supposed to work that they can’t think outside the box enough to be innovative?

In short, yes it’s possible. Plenty of people would point to the Orioles’ Showalter, and how he opted not to use Britton in the AL Wild Card game in 2016. However while there could be legitimate criticism of someone who’s done a job or been a part of something for too long, I’m not sure that argument totally flies here.

I’ve never been a CEO of a company. Not in this life, not ever. So does that mean that the next time Northrup Grumman or Lockheed Martin has a vacancy at the top spot I should be considered? I’m fresh and green, and I won’t be jaded by how things are supposed to work.

Point being, that’s a very subjective argument. I do in fact have about as much experience being a CEO as Aaron Boone does as a coach. Is it possible that in the future analysts will be praising this hire as brilliant? Sure it is. Just don’t hold your breath for too long.

Baltimore Orioles’ rival shaking things up

One of the Baltimore Orioles’ fellow AL East teams is doing everything it can to shake things up this off season. The New York Yankees parted ways with Joe Girardi, a World Series champion manager. Now they’re going even more out of the box with his replacement.

Late Friday it was announced that they were going to hire Aaron Boone as their manager. Boone of course comes from a family rich in baseball lore, and he briefly played for New York in 2003. Of course everyone remembers his walk off home run in game seven of the 2003 ALCS to send New York to the World Series in lieu of Boston. For a guy who only played in 54 games for NY, that’s a great way to be remembered.

But there’s one problem; Boone’s never set foot on a baseball diamond as a coach at any level – much less in the big leagues. I’ve written before about how teams seem to be wanting to go with youth in the dugout as opposed to tenured and respected managers. That’s certainly what Houston did, and Washington, Boston, and and others have followed suit.

But at least the people who were hired in those cities were guys who had worked their way through the minors and up the coaching ranks. Aaron Boone’s never coached, as I said above. And again as I’ve said before, I’m not a fan of the youth movement. But hiring a guy who’s never coached before? That’s strange.

Baltimore Orioles: Welington Castillo signs with ChiSox

A former member of the Baltimore Orioles is now off the boards. Former Orioles’ catcher Welington Castillo is headed to Chicago. He signed a two-year, $15 dollar deal with the ChiSox. It also has an $8 million club option with a $500,000 buyout for 2020.

Castillo of course spent one year (2017) with the O’s, with some success and some time on the DL. This obviously means that the Orioles will definitely have to go in a different direction next year behind the dish. The question is in which direction will they go?

My personal opinion is that they’ll be a monster with a two-headed catcher. Time will probably be split between the likes of Joseph and Sisco. And that’s a good thing, because it’ll give Sisco, the obvious future to the position, a chance to observe how Joseph handles the pitching staff. It also gives the Orioles flexibility in the field, as Joseph could in a pinch play first base as well. But one way or the other, Castillo is off the board.

Baltimore Orioles announce 2018 game times

You know it must be a slow news day (or period, more like) when you’re writing a story about the Orioles’ start times for games. But the team did release that information yesterday, and it came with a bit of a surprise. And from my standpoint, a good surprise.

The team announced that all Sunday games starting in 2018 would begin at 1:05 PM as opposed to 1:35. There was no reason given for this change, just an announcement that it would be happening. Years ago 1:05 was the given start time for Sunday games at Memorial Stadium, but as they transitioned to Camden Yards it became 1:35.

Opening Day will still be the traditional 3:05 first pitch, but the majority of the remaining games will begin at 7:05. The O’s will have four weekday afternoon games, including a 1:35 first pitch against the Washington Nationals on Memorial Day. The regular season finale against Houston will of course be a 3:05 PM start, which is a league-wide mandate.

I’ll be honest; I like the earlier Sunday starts. I don’t know for sure, however I suspect that they began going to 1:35 when they moved to the Inner Harbor due to the fact that the extra half hour allowed people to get lunch in the area before the games. However now with Dempsey’s Brew Pup right there in the ballpark, and Pickles and Sliders right outside, most people are probably utilizing those options. But ultimately from my perspective, I can always afford to get home an extra 30 minutes earlier!

Baltimore Orioles: The argument for Nick Markakis

There was some buzz this week about the Baltimore Orioles possibly re-acquiring former right fielder Nick Markakis. My personal opinion is that it would be a mistake. I’m in the group that says that he would simply stunt the organization’s growth in terms of some of the young outfielders who will be looking to see time in the bigs.

But is there any upside to the O’s bringing Markakis back? The answer to that is yes. First off, the O’s haven’t had an everyday right fielder since Markakis left. Granted in some cases that’s given them the ability to be nimble with the lineup in a sense, however it would solidify that spot going into next year. It would also probably solidify the DH role, as Trumbo would slide into that slot on a more full-time basis.

Markakis may have declining power numbers, but this past year he got on base at a .354 clip. As a team in 2017, the Orioles had a collective OBP of .312. So whether it’s a single, a double, or a walk, Markakis’ presence would help the Orioles get more base runners out on the pond.

Speaking of declining power numbers, there was one category in which Markakis has seen a slight uptick since leaving the Orioles: doubles. In his final three seasons in Baltimore, Markakis never reached 30 doubles on the year. In his three years in Atlanta, he’s hit 38, 38, and 39 doubles respectively.

All of these things would help the Orioles going into 2018 – there’s no doubt. Whether those things outweigh the potential risks however is a different story.