Birdland Crush

Baltimore Orioles fans are still waiting on news of a would-be trade involving Manny Machado. The problem with the winter meetings is that news like this leaks out and it comes off as the Birds are about to pull off the trade at any moment. That turns into next week, which turns into whenever.

Word on the street is that the O’s hope a deal is done before the Warehouse closes for Christmas and New Years. But what if that doesn’t happen? Are the Orioles balking?

I would say no. Granted, you want to know who’s going to be on your team as early as possible. However in terms of getting the utmost value for Machado, I would submit that the Birds still have some time. It’s not an unlimited amount of time, but they have some wiggle room.

Once teams report for spring training I would suspect his value would start taking a hit. Once you’ve reported for spring training you’re starting to go through the motions of being on that team for the season, and preparing – both mentally and physically. And blockbuster-type trades rarely happen in spring training.

So with that deadline in mind, the O’s should probably aim to have this done at the latest by the end of January. Coincidentally, that coincides with the team’s annual FanFest. But the fact is that they won’t get the value out of Machado that they should get and deserve to get if they pull the trigger once spring training has begun. If it gets to that point, they should wait for the deadline.

The Baltimore Orioles saw a familiar emotion pop up with all the talk last week of trading Manny Machado: paranoia. And I’m really one to talk – my unease about trading in the division is well documented. But are the Orioles letting that get the best of them?

The Orioles and owner Peter Angelos have always had a paranoid streak in them regarding New York (and to a lesser degree Boston). They’re wary of the fact that New York fans come to Camden Yards en masse and take over Orioles’ home games. And they’re wary of the fact that they (the O’s that is) are very careful in how they spend their money, whereas New York seemingly throws caution to the wind. And they’re respected for it and it generally works out for them.

So yes, the Orioles are a bit paranoid about dealing with New York in terms of trading Machado. And New York knows that. So…is New York simply muddying the waters for the Orioles? Perhaps they have no urge to acquire Machado, but they’re throwing their two cents in just to make things tougher on a division rival?

We obviously don’t know the answer to that. But again, the Orioles’ paranoia is well-documented. And probably well-merited at that.

The Baltimore Orioles are a better team with Manny Machado. Anyone would be. But we should also remember that they’re a pretty potent offensive team without him as well. The likes of Davis, Trumbo, Jones, Schoop, and Mancini have pop in their bats.

The point is that the Orioles will have a solid offensive team without Machado. In fact, his absence could even give them some flexibility in the lineup. Granted their defense might suffer a bit, however you can’t really do anything about that. You just have to try to fill holes as best you can.

So they have the bats; it’s the arms that the Orioles need. And the real dilemma is whether or not they could trade for those arms without trading Machado. My personal opinion is that it’s tough to say, but if you’re going to trade Machado you should take the opportunity to pick up some pitching. And in saying that, I mean major league-ready pitching. At least one bona fide big time prospect that’s ready to come to the big leagues now (or who’s already had a cup of coffee).

If the Orioles trade Machado and they end up with a power-hitting prospect, that would be a mistake. While the guy might be a gifted hitter and all, that’s not what they need. They need pitching. It’s Dan Duquette’s job to convince teams that they need to be willing to part with prospects the caliber of what I described above in order to acquire Machado. That is if in fact he’s for sale.

The Baltimore Orioles need to stop shopping Manny Machado – for now, at least. I’m still on record as saying that they should keep him and continually try to extend him. They’re a better team with him than without him. Then perhaps at the deadline if they’re out of contention and there’s no headway with an extension, you move him.

However I’m afraid that the Orioles are in the midst of getting hoodwinked if they aren’t careful. They don’t want Machado ending up with New York. And it seems that they’re willing to do anything to make sure that doesn’t happen. And that quite frankly should be to their credit.

This past week during the winter meetings one of the teams that were hot on Machado were the ChiSox. At some point a rumor came out that New York was already dealing with Chicago through back channels, saying that if they traded for Machado and were willing to flip him to them they’d get more than what they gave up to the O’s. To those who say the Orioles are simply being paranoid, does that not sound fishy?

It sounds an awful lot like New York back channeled to the Sox, who then turned around and tried to use that to their advantage. The narrative then became that the Sox weren’t putting the “absolute best” deal on the table, but they would guarantee the Orioles they wouldn’t turn around and flip Manny to the Bronx. Luckily for the Orioles, they didn’t bite.

And that tells you that Dan Duquette is doing his due diligence. However the fact is that this is almost similar to the Texeira sweepstakes a few years ago. In that case granted the Orioles were all but thrown in the middle of it against their will – simply because they were Texeira’s hometown team. But in this situation, Chicago’s trying to use the Orioles’ fears against them to offer less for a perennial all-star. And in turn, NY’s offering Chicago a deal that in theory would be better than that which Chicago was offering the Orioles.

Yes folks, it’s a convoluted web. But if the Orioles were smart they’d simply end the trade talks – for now. Again, my personal opinion is that they should try to extend Manny. But if they’re going to make a deal, why not do it next month when the lights of the winter meetings aren’t quite so bright? And again as I’ve said, the best way to keep Manny away from the Bronx is simply to trade him to a team that could in theory afford him.

Before the Rule 5 draft even occurred yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles had already signed free agent pitcher Michael Kelly. Kelly was formerly of the San Diego Padres organization, but has never pitched at the big league level. However while the Orioles assigned him to triple-A Norfolk, he signed a major league contract.

As for the Rule 5 draft, the Orioles expanded their involvement this year, selecting three players. LHP Nestor Cortes was selected from the New York Yankees’ organization, as was RHP Jose Mesa. The Orioles also took RHP Pedro Araujo from the Chicago Cubs. Of those three, Cortes is the most likely to stick, and to eventually compete for a spot in the rotation. The Birds also lost six players in the minor league portion of the draft.

The big news around the team of course still involves Manny Machado, and the trade possibilities out there. Dan Duquette said that he was going home and would continue talking to teams over the weekend. The Orioles are justifiably doing everything they can to keep Machado out of the AL East – namely Boston or New York. And I’m on record as saying that you just don’t trade a player of Machado’s caliber in your own division.

The Orioles floated the idea of making a deal contingent on the receiving team signing Machado to an extension within 72 hours, which I thought was a good idea. Apparently that hasn’t been well received by teams interested in him. The idea of course being that if he were signed to an extension, that team wouldn’t turn around and trade him to a team like New York.

There were reports out of Chicago that the ChiSox were going to acquire him, and immediately flip him to the Bronx for a bigger haul than they gave away to the O’s. And that probably would have lit Birdland on fire, as the question would be why the Orioles couldn’t have gotten that haul for Machado but someone else could. And the answer is simple; because New York isn’t going to give up as much value to a division rival as they would to any run-of-the-mill team. It’s the same principle.

I’m not sure however that you can guarantee that Machado isn’t flipped to New York under your nose. I hate to say that, but odds are it’s true. What if a team agreed to that 72 hour rule, only to sign him to a five-year extension AND THEN flip him to New York (or Boston)? Odds are they’d probably then get a much bigger haul for Machado than the Orioles did, of course because he’d be under team control for the duration of that contract. So if the Orioles get too technical, it could potentially end up backfiring in their face.

The best way to keep him out of New York (at least until his current contract expires) is to trade him to a team that can probably afford to keep him. I wouldn’t think the ChiSox would be one of those teams. Regardless of the quality of prospects that they might throw the Orioles’ way, I suspect they’d be a candidate to turn around and flip Machado to someone else – and there’s already a rumor out there that a back channel to the Bronx exists. However if they trade him to someone such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, I see him playing there for the duration of the season.

The Orioles owe it to themselves and more importantly to their fans to get the best deal possible. However they owe the same due diligence to keep Machado away from their division rivals. Lots of people want to challenge that old line of thinking and argue that if New York offers the best deal they should take it. But even if it’s the best deal on paper, it’s still not the best deal. Because one of your own would then be playing against you 18 times. And when Machado’s making spectacular plays at third and robbing the likes of Jones and Davis of extra-base hits, it’ll certainly be real.

There’s no circumstance in which the Baltimore Orioles should consider trading Manny Machado to an AL East team – namely the New York Yankees. Predictably, New York is interested in the all-star third baseman. Heck, they were even kind enough to send their team’s incumbent to San Diego to clear a spot. However if that had anything to do with Machado, it was probably in vain; Machado apparently wants to play shortstop moving forward.

But I digress. In no sport is it a good idea to trade within one’s own division. Never, not at any time, and under no circumstances. Teams only make trades to improve themselves. So why would a division rival want Machado? Because he makes them better. New York is already a stacked team. But would they be better with Machado? Indubitably.

However there are many people out there who simply like to challenge “old thinking.” Who says you can’t trade in your own division? If they offer the best deal why wouldn’t the Orioles take that?  Because again, teams make trades to get better. So why would the Orioles want to help New York get better.

The counter-argument to that is, …how do we know it’s going to blow up in the Orioles’ face? Couldn’t it work out better for them? And the answer is yes. However when you get a fresh crop of prospects, they’re simply that: prospects. Machado is a guarantee in a sense. He’ll be a superstar on day one. And we know that because we’re well beyond day one of his career at this point.

The only risk for any team trading for Machado is that he could end up being a rental since he’s only under team control for one year. However the teams that are interested in him are probably the same teams who would be in the market to sign him at this point next year. You aren’t going to see the likes of Tampa or Toronto playing for Machado.

I would encourage the why not trade within your division? crowd to keep on believing that challenging old thinking is always a good thing. I’m not saying that it’s never a good thing, but the fact is that the status quo has been the status quo for this long for a reason. If you want further proof, as the Boston Red Sox how trading a hot shot pitcher who was a heck of a slugger to New York worked out in the early 20th century.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Baltimore Orioles have been “asking teams to make offers on Manny Machado. In essence, that would mean that they’re actively shopping him at the winter meetings. Included in that report was the fact that Machado had told the Orioles that he wanted to play shortstop in 2018 – in Baltimore or elsewhere.

It’s unclear how much of this is due to that last part. However either way, apparently teams are inquiring and the Orioles are listening. Or perhaps if Rosenthal is to be believed it’s the other way around. Philadelphia’s a team that we know has some interest, and I’m sure there are others.

Rosenthal is a great journalist and he’s usually spot on. So odds are there’s some wind beneath this rumor. That’s not to say that Machado will be traded this week or at all. But it sure sounds like the Orioles’ view on signing Machado to a long-term deal is changing.

In his article, Rosenthal says that it’s doubtful the Orioles would get two top pitching prospects for a guy under team control for only one year. And that might be true. However the Orioles are obviously well within their right to ask for a massive return if Machado’s going to cease to be on their roster. And the fact is that either way they’re under no obligation to sell.

So out of curiosity, who guards the hot corner if Machado is traded? You might recall earlier in the off season I floated the idea that Mancini could take over at first base, with Davis moving to third. That would be an inhouse solution to that problem. You certainly lose a lot with Machado’s glove not being at third, however Davis is a solid third baseman.

That would also allow the Orioles to look for a left-handed bat who could play the outfield to replace Mancini. All of this is just speculation mind you, but time will tell.