Baltimore Orioles: Should Zach Britton be on the trading block?

Since the beginning of the winter meetings last week, many Baltimore Orioles fans have been talking about the possibility of the team trading closer Zach Britton. Unequicovally, I think that would be a mistake on several fronts. But that’s just my view.

The idea of course is that the Orioles won’t be able to re-sign Britton when his contract is up in 2019. So if they traded him now, they’d get a king’s ransom in return since his value is higher than it ever would be. And there’s no arguing that, because the guy’s coming of of a year when he saved 47 straight games.

However the Orioles are often told that they over-value their players. I actually think it’s the opposite, and other teams are under-valuing the Orioles’ players. Or pretending to at least in hopes of getting them cheap. However the thing with Britton is that as gifted as a closer as he is, he only pitches one inning a game. So what exactly could the Orioles hope to get in return?

Aside from what they could get, I still think it would be a mistake. And in fact, it doesn’t appear that Britton is for sale. When you have a closer of his caliber, you don’t trade him. There’s no question that he won’t come cheap in 2019 – that goes without saying. However you’re all but admitting defeat before you even get started if you do that.

Furthermore, the Orioles hoped for years and years that they could “be good.” Now they’re good, and fans seem to want them to trade their pieces away. Again, I understand the sentiment, and I recognize that those who feel this way think that the Orioles would be improving for the future if they did it. That goes without saying, and yes you perpetually need to ensure the security of your future in this business.

However at some point you also have to realize when you “are good.” That’s where the Orioles are right now. If you start trading pieces looking towards the future, one of two things will happen. Either those prospects won’t pan out, or they will. And if they do, in five or six years you might find yourself back in this spot. So…in essence you simply defered your shot at a World Series.

What the O’s need to do is go for it now – while Britton and company are still under contract. Let’s go back to the idea of getting prospects in return; what if they don’t pan out? That’s the risk in all trades – and if that happens, well…you’re up a creek without a paddle.

Baltimore Orioles: Go after Edwin Encarnacion?

Edwin Encarnacion ended the Baltimore Orioles’ season in 2016. His walk off home run in the 1th inning of the AL Wild Card game won it for Toronto, bouncing the Birds unceremoniously from the playoffs. But how would Orioles fans feel about Encarnacion possibly doing that for their team?

Encarnacion is a free agent, and the Orioles appear to have some muted interest. Since 2012 his home run totals have been in the mid-30’s to low-40’s, and last year he had an OBP of .357. Yes, however he’s been considered a villain for the past few years with Toronto.

First off, do the Orioles pay a little too much attention to that type of thing? I mean, if a player is the right fit, should it really matter that he’s been playing for a team who’s fought with the Orioles tooth and nail (sometimes literally) over the years? In a cae like Bautista I think that does make a difference. Bautista’s gone out of his way to antagonize the BIrds. Encarnacion in my view has not. On that front I think they could make it work.

There are two things that might hold the Orioles back in this case. First off, he’ll be 34 years old when next season begins. So for starters he would probably need to take a shorter contract if he comes here. However he’s also a corner infielder by trade. He would be the Orioles’ primary DH if he signed, however I suspect they’d prefer someone who also had the ability to play the outfield.

Notice I said above that the Orioles had muted interest. My prediction is that he doesn’t come to Baltimore. I think the Orioles would be better off sticking with Trumbo as opposed to going outside the organization and getting someone else. Mind you, that’s not a sure thing either, however you know much more what you are getting.

Baltimore Orioles: Too much undue pressure on Dan Duquette?

Late last week Baltimore Orioles’ Executuve Vice-President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette said that he’s tired of being picked in last place each year. Now on one hand, some people would say that in order for that to cease he needs to find a way to make a bigger splash to improve the team. But there are two sides to every story. On the other hand…

…the Orioles have won more games in the regular season since and including 2012 than any other franchise. One way or the other, they’ve found a way to get things done. People might also point out that they haven’t won a title in that span, which is true. But even in the two years they missed the post-season, they were competitive. The O’s haven’t had a losing record since 2011.

Ironically, the national media seemingly has a love affair with one of the Orioles’ division rivals: the Tampa Rays. Admittedly, they’ve also just found a way to get things done – for the most part, that is. However seemingly no matter how many players they lost or how many injuries they had, people would pick them to be in the mix. Just this past season, they were a popular pick to win the AL East. And as we know, they weren’t even close.

I suppose what Duquette’s saying is that this franchise never seems to get the benefit of the doubt. Other teams seemingly do, for whatever reason. While we know this isn’t going to happen, if the 2017 Orioles to a man were exactly the same as the 2016 bunch, would they be horrible? Probably not – odds are they’d be competitive, just as they were last season.

The knock on the O’s is that they don’t have the horses in pitching, which is a glaring weakness. Many people also point to their strikeout totals. However any power-slugging club is going to have strings where they strike out a lot. That’s just part of the deal.

Incidentally, the way you win games in the AL East is by clobbering your opponent. While I also do believe in having guys who simply get on base here and there, AL East games traditionally are 10-7 affairs. So that’s how the Orioles need to build their team, because before anything else they need to focus on the division. If they can adcance past that point, they can start worrying about how to beat teams who focus more on OBP.

Baltimore Orioles still working on Mark Trumbo

The Baltimore Orioles aren’t trying to waste any time on the Mark Trumbo front. The Birds definitely want him back. Dan Duquette confirmed that the two sides had contact as late as Thursday. It’s a work in progress.

The question is whether or not Trumbo would be able to replicate his production from 2016 – both next year and in the future. However the Birds also don’t want to hamstring themselves down the line. As in when they go and try to re-sign Machado and Schoop.

I suppose I’m resigned to the fact that regardless of what the Orioles do on any front, there will be some criticism. Mark Trumbo may well be worth the money moving forward, but what does that do to the team in the future? These are all things that need to be considered as any team ponders moves.

According to industry sources, Colorado is one of the other teams that’s in heavy on Trumbo. However they appear to be less willing than the Orioles to open up their pockets. For the record, the opportunity to play in that environment and in that ballpark would be attractive to me if I were Trumbo. With his power, I think he could really have a career year.

Of course the downside is that he’d find himself playing in the field a lot if he goes to Colorado. With the Orioles while he’ll play the field here and there, he’ll also DH a lot. And that’s true of any AL team.

At the end of the day, the Orioles have to do right by themselves – both in terms of wins and losses as well as financially. Time will tell what “right” is, however you can bet that Dan Duquette won’t allow them to make the wrong decision.

Baltimore Orioles: Botched semantics with Jose Bautista?

There was somewhat of a hulabaloo this week at the winter meetings when Baltimore Orioles’ GM Dan Duquette supposedly told Jose Bautista that they wouldn’t make a play on him. Duquette cited the fact that Orioles fans didn’t like him. That seemed to touch a nerve with a lot of people – both fans and experts alike.

First off, what Duquette said isn’t a lie. I’m not sure there’s been a player more loathed in Baltimore for some time than Bautista is. Furthermore, I think he may have been onto something; there might have been a fan revolt had he signed in Baltimore.

But I suspect that was also code for the players/Showalter don’t like you. And again, that wouldn’t be too far from the truth. I suspect that Duquette tried to be as diplomatic as he could, however at the end of the day he had to cite a reason to Bautista and his representatives as to why they didn’t want him.

And fans should consider themselves lucky that he put it the way that he did. If he told Bautista that the clubhouse didn’t want him, that would only serve as bulletin board material going into next year. And as most people know, Bautista wouldn’t be the type to take that lying down. He’d probably make a point of showing up the Orioles the first time he hit a homer. Heck, he might still do it to the fans.

The flip side however is whether or not the O’s are being foolish in at least not considering the option of signing him. I would say no, mainly because he’s aging (36) and he’d come with injury concerns. However that’s not something that a lot of people seem to want to consider.

If you don’t want to hear that argument, consider one other thing. It’s fairly easy for players to put mini-rivalries aside when someone comes in via free agency. With how prevelant free agency is these days, you know there’s always a chance that the guy on whom you’re hating this year might be your teammate next year or down the line.

I suspect it’s tougher for fans to look past those types of things. However Bautista may be a special case. He’s seemingly done things on purpose for some time to antagonzie the Orioles and their fans. When you’ve done as many things as he’s done, it’s probably smart to assume you won’t ever fit on that other team.

The Orioles also selected two outfielders in yesterday’s Rule 5 draft. They took Aneury Tavarez from Boston, and Anthony Santander from Cleveland. Dan Duquette was very happy with the selections, as both players can add depth to the outfield and are decent hitters. They will need to remain on the Orioles’ roster all season long, or they go back to their original club.

Baltimore Orioles: How much addition is necessary?

In reading some of the commentary online from fans this week, I think that a lot of folks need to remember that the Baltimore Orioles were a playoff team in 2016. Some will say yes but they only lasted one game, or they backed their way in. All of those things are true, yes. But history will show that they participated in the post season for the third time in five years.

So when I see scathing commentary by folks who desperately want the Orioles to make a move during the Winter Meetings, I often chuckle to myself. I get it, folks – I really do. Boston makes a deal for a high-profile starter, among other teams, and you want to join the party. And perhaps there is a bit of just frustration when fans see the Orioles stand and watch as moves are made.

However, how much addition is really necessary? The big piece coming off their board in theory is Trumbo, who’s engaged in talks with the Orioles to stay in Baltimore. (And I’m not going to lie, but that surprises me.) Obviously Wieters is thought to be another departure, however we also know that the Orioles have depth at catcher. So do they really need a high-ticket item?

Starting pitching is their big weakness, and while the likes of Tillman were certainly solid last year, it will probably be struggle again in 2017. So someone like a Sale might well have gone over well for the Orioles. However it still goes back to the price.

So my question to folks who want them to make a move is would you want a move made regardless of the price? A big topic during the meetings has been Machado, and what it will eventually cost to keep him. Would you want the Orioles to step up and trade him and get a huge haul in return? Because the Orioles could in fact do that, I just don’t see it happening.

Speaking for myself, I think they’ve actually played it smart in a way. The only people with whom they’ve had conversations have been players that would fill a need. Not some high-ticket item whereby the Birds are going to make a huge splash and so forth. That’s not who they are. If someone’s still on the board later in the off season that might be a different story. But for right now I think they’ve played it safe, and played it smart.

Baltimore Orioles: MLB needs a salary cap, and quick

The Baltimore Orioles could at some point find themselves back in a rut like they were in from 1998-2011. That is if something doesn’t change at some point. MLB needs a salary cap – and fast.

I recognize that it’s not going to happen folks. I’m not naive, I know how things work. However over the course of this week we’ve heard of players like Bryce Harper asking for 10 years, $400 million in their next contract. From the Orioles’ standpoint, that calls into question what the likes of Manny Machado will want in his next deal. Will the O’s be able to give it to him?

For what it’s worth, Washington has already said that Harper won’t get that type of money. And I applaud them for that. However the flip side of the coin is that someone will give it to him – possibly someone in the AL East. And regardless of where Machado is or who’s guarding the hot corner in Baltimore, that could affect the Orioles.

So what MLB needs is a salary cap. If they had a cap like what they have in the NFL, players wouldn’t have the liberty to ask for salaries that outlandish. Because a team wouldn’t be able to sign that guy at that price and remain under the cap. So players would be forced to take perhaps $15 million per year as opposed to $40 million. (How tough of pill to swallow would that be?!

As it stands now without a cap, it all but ensures that only 3-4 teams can realistically have a shot at signing a player like Machado. (Note that I said realistically – there are exceptions to everything.) Does MLB not realize that effectively means that only 3-4 teams might have a legitimate shot at winning it all? Are they okay with that?

Ironically, Washington’s probably one of the teams that could afford to pay a player that much. However as I said above, they said they wouldn’t be doing it. And that’s smart. First off, players try to use a poker face during these negotiations – why not do the same? However players need to realize that there’s only so much money that teams an give you.

I suspect that at the end of the day neither Machado nor Harper will get contracts of that magnitude. The Birds certainly don’t want to be stuck in a contract deal for ten years either. But again, if you have a salary cap, none of this is truly an issue.

Baltimore Orioles: What’s Manny Machado worth to you?

The Baltimore Orioles weren’t a part of one of the bigger stories in the first day of the Wineter Meetings yesterday. But they can be made a part of it. Washington annouced that it wasn’t willing to pay the cash that Bryce Harper is demanding after 2018. Harper is said to want somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 over ten years.

It’s rare for something like this to be said two years before the guy hits free agency, however it got me to thinking what the Orioles would do with Manny Machado. Are they a better team with Manny at the hot corner? I think everyone knows the answer to that. But would Orioles fans be okay with that salary number and length of contract?

The smart ones would not – be satisfied with that number, that is. Everyone knows how special Machado is – that goes without saying. However everything has a price. There are those out there who feel that if the Orioles choose not to re-sign Machado no matter what the price is, shame on them. But again, should the Orioles blow everyone on one player?

Keep in mind that this is merely the price that Harper is asking. There’s no gaurantee he’ll get that. Furthermore if he does, that’s not to say Machado will as well. As is the case in all things, you have to do a cost-analysis. Is Manny Machado worth a lot of money and should he get a large contract when the time comes? Yes. Is he priceless? Probably not.

Baltimore Orioles showing interest in Mark Trumbo?

In one of the first pieces of news at the Winter Meetings, GM Dan Duquette told reporters yesterday that the Baltimore Orioles have been in talks with Mark Trumbo. In fact, the Birds have made him two competitive offers since the end of the season. That’s something that should be big for fans; the Birds aren’t immediately cutting their losses on Trumbo. They’re tying to keep him.

While Duquette didn’t get into specifics, he made it clear that the Orioles were engaged wtih Trumbo and that they’re love to have him back (quote courtesy of Roch Kubatko, MASNsports):

We’ve had several conversations with Mark Trumbo, but we haven’t been able to cinch a deal with him. In the past, we’ve made a couple offers to him. We’ve had a dialogue going with him for several weeks.

Again, that’s something that should give Orioles fans some hope. None of this of course means that Trumbo will stay in Baltimore, mind you. In fact, I would submit that that odds are still greater that he leaves than they are that he stays. But the O’s aren’t takin this lying down, they’re trying to continually find a solution for their 2017 team.

There were also rumors yesterday to the effect that the Orioles had re-signed third baseman Manny Machado, which were immediately dispelled. Duquette even said that the Birds weren’t in active negotiations with Machado at the moment, which sent shock waves around the twitterverse. The Birds aren’t actively trying to re-sign Machado – right now. Calm yourselves, people. That doesn’t mean that in the future they won’t try t re-sign him!

Going back to Trumbo for a moment, apparently Colorado has emerged as a team that’s also showing interest in him. The knock on Trumbo is that his production this past year with the O’s could have been an anamoly, and of course that as he ages more and more it will go down. Going to a place like Colorado could safegaurd against that, as we know the ball really flies there.

The Orioles of course have the fact that they’ll get a draft pick from whomever signs him going for them. But here’s a spin on that which could hurt – what if he signs late in the game and the team has already signed someone for whom they’ve given up a draft pick? When the O’s signed Jimenez they had already given up their first round pick, so they only surrendered a second rounder…

…if a similar thing happened here, the Birds might not get the first rounder they’re expecting. But at the end of the day, fans should know that the Orioles are in the mix on Trumbo – for now.

Baltimore Orioles: What to expect from the Winter Meetings?

What should fans expect out of the Baltimore Orioles at this coming week’s Winter Meetings? I’m going to say not much; aside from the normal Rule 5 pick, at least. But I’m not expecting the Birds to make the short trip home from DC (or Oxon Hill, MD to be techincal) with any big ticket items. That’s just my view at least.

Mark Trumbo is probably the biggest prize out there, and I’m not sure how realistic it would be to expect him to sign in Baltimore again. Last year of course the buzz was all about Chris Davis, and in fact we said the same thing – how realistic is it really that he’ll re-sign with the O’s? Now of course we know that while he certainly didn’t sign during the Winter Meetings, he did end up back in Baltimore. This of course after a curtain call in front of the Camden Faithful on the final day of the 2015 season!

Nevertheless, I’d honestly be surprised if Trumbo signed anywhere this week. I suspec that a lot of teams and even agents will use this week to either begin or come close to closing deals. Seeing that things got down to the wire with collective bargaining this past week, that took the attention of quite a few people away from free agency.

But I would also remind fans that it’s not just free agency that comes up during the Winter Meetings. Trades sometimes go down as well. And it makes sense given that the entire baseball world converges on that one place for the entire week. The Orioles are in the hunt for a corner outfielder/DH, potentially to replace the aforementioned Trumbo. Might they take that route instead?

Again, I’m not expecting anything more than a Rule 5 pick to go down this week. I might be wrong, but that’s just my hunch. The Orioles are rarely active during this time period. For sure they’re out there wheeling and dealing, however Dan Duquette’s “hot stove” season really doesn’t start until February – and it often stretches into March. And that includes once Grapefruit League play has begun.

But this is always an interesting week around baseball to say the least. It gives people like me something about which to write in the sense that there’s often news or waves coming out of the meetings. Needless to say, it sure beats most other weeks during the off season!