Tropicana Field has been a house of horrors for the Baltimore Orioles, who sent Trevor Rogers to the mound there this afternoon. A house of horrors in 2026, as well as in the past. Both Friday, yesterday, and today, that hasn’t been the case – but none more so than this afternoon. Rogers’ line: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K.
The O’s got a few runners on base in the first few innings, but the teams in essence spent the beginning of the game feeling one another out. Rogers made one bad pitch, resulting in a solo homer to Vilade in the fourth. It was one run, but perhaps it gave you a sinking feeling. If it did, it shouldn’t have.
The Birds put two on in the fifth by way of walks. Yohel Pozo lined out to second base with one out, and Tampa doubled Leody Taveras off of second to end the inning. And to end the threat.
Or did it?! Craig Albernaz challenged the out call at second base, and the call was overturned. The replay was pretty conclusive in that Taveras got his hand back into the bag at second. That left the Orioles trailing 1-0 and hitting with two runners on with two outs.
That’s where Tampa manager Kevin Cash made an unforced error. That more or less cost his team the game. He followed analytics with no regard to feel for the game.
He pulled his starter, Peralta – who was leading the game, pitching well, and between 70-80 pitches in. Instead he went to a southpaw reliever, Clevinger – to pitch to Jackson Holiday. They say that numbers don’t lie, and southpaws have the advantage pitching to a lefty. But…removing a strong pitcher in the fifth with a reasonable pitch count. For that?! Seemed draconian.
Numbers don’t lie. But they also don’t play the game. Human beings do. And the human being of Jackson Holliday made cash out of Cash’s decision with an RBI-single to tie the game at one. As a severe thunderstorm brewed outside the Trop, hometown boy Pete Alonso’s subsequent two-RBI double catapulted the O’s into a 3-1 lead.
Sabre metrics do play a role. But you have to have feel for the game. Craig Albernaz has gotten better at that of late. Being more tied to what the computer says to do bit Kevin Cash today big time. It’s one thing to match up late in a game. This was in the middle innings. Further compounding Cash’s decision, Clevinger had to pitch to three batters (or the end of the inning). So once his lefty-lefty matchup failed, he couldn’t change pitchers again to pitch to Alonso.
And here’s the thing about dramatic moments in games; they give teams confidence. The thunderstorm outside might have played a role also. One way or the other, Colton Cowser smacked a two-run homer in the sixth to extend the lead to 5-1. A single and a walk brought Jackson Holliday back to the plate, and his two-RBI double extended the lead to 7-1. That included Yohel Pozo flopping himself onto home plate and being ruled safe – a call upheld on a replay challenge.
As if that wasn’t enough, the O’s loaded the bases. Christian Encarnacion-Strand would then clear them with a double. That broke the game wide open, and gave the Birds a 10-1 lead. Tampa would tack on a meaningless RBI-single by Mateo in the bottom of the inning, and the O’s have taken the first three games of this four-game wrap-around series in Tampa.
From Tampa’s perspective, they had opportunities to right the ship – this had they not let things snowball. But that challenge in the fifth inning changed the entire scope of the game. It forced Tampa to make a decision; play the numbers, or leave a pitcher in the game who appears to be throwing well. They erred on the side of playing the odds. And the Orioles made them pay for that decision with thunder and lightning.
Craig Albernaz has fallen into this trap before also. And as I said above, I’ve personally seen him make improvements in that area, and at times has trusted his gut and his players. Numbers and stats are important – that isn’t up for debate. But knowing when it’s actually stupid to play the numbers is also important. Today it was the opponent over-managing, and the opponent working themselves out of a game during to analytics. And again, the Orioles struck like bolts of lightning.
The series concludes tomorrow night at Tropicana Field. Brandon Young gets the start for the Orioles, and he’ll be opposed by Tampa’s Shane McClanahan. Game time is set for just after 6 PM.
Birdland Crush 