Cade Povich had a semi-strong outing for the Baltimore Orioles last night. Albeit a short one – he threw one bad pitch. Povich’s line: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K.
Povich surrendered a three-run homer to Chourio in the second. The ball barely made it over the wall, but it made it over. But the O’s pounced in the last of the third. They put the first two runners on, and Pete Alonzo smacked a three-run home run to tie the game.
Povich was lifted after only 71 pitches, Admittedly that’s high for only being in the fourth inning. But it was that sort of game; Milwaukee (and the Orioles) fouled off pitch after pitch. Other than the homer, Povich sort of moved along in the game.
He was entering his third time through the order. The numbers indicate that Povich starts to lose it there. So he was removed.
In fairness, the bullpen was strong. It was also rested after an off day yesterday. It was also a de facto postseason game, and you could argue that Craig Albernaz managed it from that perspective. My personal opinion is that Povich is a serviceable starter. That’s an opinion which stems from feel for the game. But if you’re that bound to sabre metrics and convinced a starter can’t go through the order three times, he shouldn’t be a starter.
The Orioles held serve for the most part. However starting in the seventh, the algorithm chimed in again. With two outs and a runner on second, Craig Albernaz pinch hit Rece Hinds for Colton Cowser – to face the lefty Hall, I get it – the probability of a righty hitting a lefty is greater. I’m not sure I would have sent up a righty hitting .177.
That may seem like one at-bat. But predictably Hinds recorded an out. Hall found a way to get the righty out. Hinds of course took Cowser’s spot in center. Cowser, whose defense is obviously strong. (Remember him climbing the wall in Denver a few weeks ago?!)
Milwaukee had a runner on first in the ninth, with one out. Contreras split the defenders and sent a double into the gap in left center. Hinds appeared to flub the ball off the wall, which allowed the run to score, giving Milwaukee a 4-3 lead in the ninth.
On top of that, it’s also fair to question the rout Hinds took to the ball. Contreras was credited with an RBI-double, but if not for the flub of the ball it’s fair to question whether the run scores if the ball is fielded cleanly. Feel for the game tells me that defense matters. The computer seemed to indicate it didn’t matter as much as getting a righty – any righty – into the game.
Yeljch’s RBI-single later in the inning seemed to seal the deal. However the Birds battled back, and in fairness they used situational hitting to perfection to do it. They put two runners in scoring position in the last of the ninth, and Samuel Basallo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand tacked on sac fly-RBI. That tied the game at five and we went to extra’s.
However Frelick’s run-scoring single in the tenth gave Milwaukee a 6-5 lead. The O’s went quietly in the bottom of the inning, and Milwaukee went onto victory. The O’s fought, but came up short.
It’s fine to use sabre metrics. You have to on some level. But in some cases you have to question what the computer model is telling you. Does it make sense to lift a regular player and a good defender for what amounts to a AAA player hitting .177? On paper though of course is did in the moment, because the situation called for a righty – any righty. But the game isn’t played on paper. It’s not played by computers. It’s played in context,
The series continues this afternoon at Camden Yards. Trevor Rogers gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Milwaukee’s Robert Gasser. Game time is set for just after 4 PM.
Birdland Crush 