Save for the tail end of his time in the ballgame, Trevor Rogers was outstanding for the Baltimore Orioles this evening. For the most part, he mowed down Toronto hitters and allowed Oriole bats to amass a lead. Rogers’ line: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K.
The stat line is incredibly deceiving in terms of his outing. The four runs are in essence an anomaly. The real question is was he lifted too late?
The Orioles did squander some opportunities early. Guerrero committed and error in the second with two runners on by dropping a foul pop. The O’s allowed Toronto to squirm out of it.
They also loaded the bases in the last of the third. Adley Rutschman walked with the bases loaded. Samuel Basallo would also scratch across a run with a sac fly-RBI. That did give the O’s a 2-0 lead.
But could it have been more? Keep in mind, the Orioles had the bases loaded (with nobody out). Only scoring twice, and in fairly humble fashion, is almost a win for the team in the field. They could have buried their opponent early. Instead they all but let them off the hook.
One inning later Jackson Holliday would add a solo home run in the fourth. Pete Alonso would go back-to-back with solo home runs in the fifth. Again, that’s a good thing, and a good sign. But solo home runs don’t beat you, the O’s need to get more runners on base.
As I said, Rogers pitched well – through six. Understandably, he seemed to begin to tire in the seventh. He allowed a leadoff double to Guerrero, and then a two-run home run to Okamoto. That narrowed the lead to 5-2. After Varsho got aboard with a double, it was obvious that Rogers was tiring.
However Craig Albernaz opted to keep Rogers in the game. Was it due to Tyler Wells in the bullpen not quite being ready? Or was it due to the fact that McAdoo, a guy without a hit at the big league level (and a righty) was coming up?
The latter option checks out with the Orioles’ insistence on Sabre metrics being used at all costs. There’s a fine line between managing and mismanaging. If the pitcher is tiring, you have to recognize that. You have to put that above matching up. The computer doesn’t and cannot take into account that a pitcher is tiring. Only that the matchup makes sense – all things being equal.
So not only was McAdoo due his first career hit, he decided to make it a two-run homer. McAdoo’s yearn to make an impact in a big spot outdid the computer. Go figure. To his credit, Craig Albernaz admitted after the game that he left Rogers in for two long.
Albernaz then went to Yennier Cano in the eight, which in reality does make sense. But Cano was injured on Wednesday…was he 100% tonight? The computer can’t tell you that, which again explains why feel for the game matters. Cano surrendered a two-run homer to Guerrero, signaling a 6-5 loss for the home standing Orioles.
Mercifully, Rogers left with the lead. Because he pitched too well to have to take the loss. He needed a solid game like this, and he provided it. However again I maintain that a computer isn’t winning anyone any games. It makes no sense to leave an ailing pitcher in to match up. And it cost them the game.
I would also look back to early in the game when the O’s had the bases loaded in the third. You can’t win games consistently if you let the opponent off the hook. Granted, they did score two – which is good. But if that inning yields a crooked number, this is a different game.
The series continues tomorrow at Camden Yards. Brandon Young gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Toronto’s Trey Yesavage. Game time is set for just after 4 PM.
Birdland Crush 