Shane Baz may have pitched his best game as a member of the Baltimore Orioles in DC tonight. It was far from perfect, but it was a quality start. Baz’s line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 K.
That’s a quality start for Baz. He also threw 108 pitches. Both teams made solid contact on balls all night. The Orioles’ shots either ended up foul or in a fielder’s mitt. In short, Washington starter Litell has struggled this year. But he mowed down Oriole bats.
Baz allowed the first two hitters to reach in the fourth, putting runners at the corners. House’s sac fly-RBI gave Washington a 1-0 lead. The good news was it should have been a base hit. Tyler O’Neill made a diving catch resulting at least in an out.
Baz would walk the leadoff man in the sixth – obviously a no-no. Following a flyout, Lile smacked a two-run homer, giving Washington a 3-0 lead. Nothing good ever happens after a walk.
That felt fairly final. But it wasn’t. As often as analytics have allowed the Orioles to get in their own way this year, it almost worked in reverse at the end. The Birds loaded the bases with one out in the ninth. Jeremiah Jackson’s sac fly-RBI cut the lead to 3-1.
Washington then was one out from a win. And they changed pitchers to bring in a southpaw to face Gunnar Henderson. I have no doubt the algorithm said that was a favorable matchup – and it doesn’t take a genius given that it was lefty-lefty. But…
…burning a reliever for one out? Granted, an important out, the winning out (from Washington’s perspective). But the computer will burn through a bullpen if you let it.
And go figure, Gunnar Henderson smacked an RBI-single and cut the lead to 3-2. The O’s would eventually load the bases again before Adley Rutschman struck out to end the game. Too little too late for the Orioles.
We’ve seen the O’s play the algorithms and lose out – a lot. This year and last. This time it almost worked in their favor. But that should serve as a warning. As I said, a computer doesn’t take into account the number of bullpen relievers you’re using. How tired your bullpen is, etc. It only says if you bring in this relievers you have a higher probability to record an out.
People act like that’s a no-brainer. Needless to say, it comes off as such. But the computer can’t overrule good baseball sense. If you need one out with a three-run lead, you have to rely on the guy YOU put in the game to get that out.
The series continues tomorrow at Nationals Park. Chris Bassitt gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Washjngton’s Cade Cavalli. Game time is set for just after 4 PM.
Birdland Crush 