Baltimore Orioles: Fools or kings?

The Baltimore Orioles are either really dumb or really smart. Take your pick. I say that in the tradition of how in international politics they say that one man’s criminal is another man’s freedom fighter. Now I don’t personally believe that because regardless of anything else terrorism is terrorism. But work with me.

The Orioles hold out seemingly every year for value. While other teams make big splashes that are very costly in November and December, the Orioles wait until the waning days of the hot stove season to make their moves. And they aren’t necessarily taking pieces off the scrap heap.

Many would argue that with the likes of Gallardo and Jimenez that’s exactly what they did. But that’s called revisionist history; at the time those deals were signed, they were widely praised. The Orioles got a bargain on both players, according to most experts. And that’s how you have to judge a move like that – in the moment. If you let production in real time taint the deal, it either becomes the greatest deal or the worst deal of all time.

However the same was true of guys like Cruz, Alvarez, and even Davis. The Orioles waited until the market forced the price to come down. And they got themselves a great deal on a great player. Those moves of course are considered great moves given the way the player’s production turned out. But again, that’s the wrong way to judge a move.

Nevertheless, it’s also playing a game of chicken in a sense. You never know when someone else is going to swoop in and grab the player on whom you have your eye. That might have just happened with Cleveland signing Encarnacion. I would agree that $20 million a year for three years is too much for him. Cleveland basically threw caution to the wind and overpaid him.

The question is how much interest did the Orioles actually have in him? I think there was some muted interest, but they weren’t hot on the trail. However what Cleveland did is a player’s dream; just swoop in and make an offer like that which can’t be refused. And again, that’s why you run a risk when you wait for the price to come down on players. If someone says screw it we want this guy at all costs, you’re done before you started.

So the strategy is either brilliant or ridiculously dumb – take your pick. If the Orioles end up with a guy like Trubo returning because the market went down late in the game, they’ll be incredibly lucky and look incredibly smart. But it’s also a game of roulette – and time will tell whether or not their number comes up.

Baltimore Orioles: Is Mike Napoli a fit?

The rumor’s out there – that the Baltimore Orioles are interested in free agent first baseman and catcher, Mike Napoli. He of course played with the Cleveland Indians in 2016, helping to lead them to the World Series. And he wasn’t just a role player – Napoli was a big part of the team.

Napoli played in 150 games, hitting .239 and getting on base at a .335 clip. He also smacked a career-high 34 home runs. So before we go any further, is there more than meets the eye to those numbers?

Obviously what I’m questioning is whether or not Napoli was juicing. And I’d be willing to put my hand to the fire and say that he wasn’t. Granted I can’t say that for sure, however there are always rumors about guys when that type of thing is going on. Due to varying injuries in the past, those questions have been raised about Napoli. But nothing was ever definitively proven or even insinuated. Where there’s no smoke, there’s often no fire.

So what would Napoli do the Orioles’ lineup? I suspect that the days of him being a regular catcher are over, and the Orioles already have the likes of Joseph as their backup catcher. So…would Napoli be the Orioles’ first baseman? Perhaps a DH?

I suspect that signing Napoli to be a DH would waste a roster spot. That’s why a guy like Trumbo was so valuable, because he was an outfielder. The Birds need to beef up their outfield, specifically in right. So if they’re going to platoon a guy at DH, he should be an outfielder. So where does the Orioles’ interest in Napoli stem?

I suspect that if they were to bring him aboard, the idea would probably be that Davis would move to right field semi-regularly. We know he can play the position, dating back to the waning days of the 2012 season – and onward. On days when Napoli would DH, we’d probably see Davis at first base again.

That’s not a horrible idea, incidentally. However Davis is a good first baseman. The Orioles in my view would be foolish to lose his glove over there. Granted in the scenario I just gave you he would still play there part-time, but you get my point. When you have something good going you don’t change it up.

So could Napoli play in the outfield? In 2015 he did play 11 games as a left fielder for Texas…and held a .600 fielding percentage. So scrap that idea. Napoli’s bat, leadership skills, and savoir faire would definitely help the Orioles. However I’m not sure there’s space for his skill set on the roster. Time will tell.

Baltimore Orioles: Pass on Rajai Davis

As the Baltimore Orioles and the rest of the world celebrate Christmas morning, there’s been a name out there the past couple of days in Birdland: Rajai Davis. Davis spent last year as a member of the Cleveland Indians, and of course was a part of their World Series run. And now apparently there’s interest in the Warehouse in signing him.

And I’m one writer who’s going to suggest that’s a bad idea. First off, let me contradict myself for a moment; he would fill a need for the Orioles in the outfielder. Davis is solid in the outfield, presenting a .980 fielding percentage last year across two different positions. So if he came to town, the Orioles would fill that need.

However at 36, Davis would probably be signing a one-year contract. Trust me folks I’m going to be 36 in a couple of weeks; nobody’s banging the door down for your services at that age! last year Davis hit .249 with only 12 homers in Cleveland (over 134 games). He also only got on base at a .306 clip. That isn’t exactly what the Orioles need right now.

Dan Duquette is on record as saying that he wants to improve the Orioles’ OBP this off season. A guy who only gets on base in some manner 30% of the time isn’t exactly going to cut it. Now with that said, there are also much worse signings out there than Davis. However I just don’t see him as being a viable option for this team.

In general however, I would normally thrown in a disclaimer of you never know what putting him in a ballpark like Camden Yards will do for him. That’s always a valid point, however in this case perhaps not so much so. Davis played last year at Progressive Field in Cleveland, which was modeled after Camden Yards.

You can see his production numbers for yourselves above. Davis has had a solid career without a doubt, and quite frankly he’s always played well against the Orioles. However that shouldn’t be a factor in the Orioles’ decision. This is nt to say that there isn’t a place for a guy like Davis out there somewhere. I suspect that there is, and that he’ll be on someone’s roster in 2017. I just don’t think it should be that of the Orioles.

So if you’ve made it this far, thank you! There are other things to do today besides read a baseball column, or even worry about the 2017 Orioles. There are gifts to be given and opened, and in my case a big vat of tomato sauce to be made in for my parents. So fro my family to yours, have a very Merry Christmas!

Baltimore Orioles: Wrap your presents, Birds fans!

Merry Christmas Eve, Baltimore Orioles fans! I’m going to keep this short and sweet for the next couple of days. Admittedly I’m in holiday mode, as I’m sure are many of you. So why are you reading a baseball column with that said?!

Being of Italian descent, this is “the holiday” in my culture. Christmas Eve is the feast of seven fishes in the Italian tradition. I’m not at all clear what those seven fishes are meant to be, as we’ve Marylandized it a bit. We’ve always done crab cakes, clams oysters, among other things. And plenty of Old Bay!

So what gifts are the Orioles wrapping for fans this year? It’s always tough to say, however I maintain that a playoff birth is one worth mentioning. But that was 2016. What about next year?

Again, hard to say. But I would expect a solution to the perpetual RF/DH situation, as well perhaps as some additional support in the bullpen. Not that the Orioles need it, but depth is always a good thing.

Nevertheless, my wish for anyone reading this is that you have a wonderful Christmas Eve night – regardless of your plans. Just another few short months until Spring Training – and that’s a great gift, for the record!

Baltimore Orioles: Don’t forget about Chris Tillman

In talking about future Baltimore Orioles free agents, Chris Tillman is a guy who’s often forgotten. Tillman will be a free agent in 2018 – a year which is looking to be a red-letter one in terms of contracts being up. So where does that leave the O’s?

Tillman’s the one pitcher in the rotation that’s seemed to work out for the Orioles. So from my standpoint, they can’t afford to lose him. Does that mean he’s priceless? No, of course not. However he is a guy that the Orioles are going to have to pay in order to keep.

It’s not worth getting into dollar amounts now, because we don’t know what the market is going to yield for a guy like Tillman at that point. Heck, we don’t know what kind of season he’s going to have in 2017. However he’ll be due a raise in wherever his next contract is.

Again, Tillman’s not priceless. If he went to other teams he probably wouldn’t be a staff ace, although he wouldn’t be a back-of-the-rotation guy either. So the Orioles do need to keep that in mind, and in fact it can be a shaky slope to walk. Tillman and his agent will probably want ace-type money since Tillman has been the staff ace here in Baltimore. However the Orioles will argue that on other teams he wouldn’t be an ace and so forth.

In essence, we’re talking about the type of ridiculous conversations that occure in arbitration hearings. The team’s actually talking it’s own guy down in a way. But that’s part of the game, and part of the sport.

So if I were the Orioles, I’d try to get this done as soon as possible. Keep in mind that until his contract expires the O’s are the only team with whom Tillman can negotiate. Both sides are a known commodity to the other, given that nobody knows what Tillman’s worth would be on the open market. So there’s that.

Pitching has been a sore spot for the Orioles for years. So Tillman is a guy that they need to find a way to keep. I can’t imagine his price to go way past what’s considered reasonable, so for the team’s sake hopefully they can come to some sort of arrangement at some point. Sooner rather than later, again for the sake of the team. And the fans…and writers who cover it all!

Baltimore Orioles: Does the media want Manny Machado out of Baltimore?

The Baltimore Orioles are starting to hear rumblings about Manny Machado again. Whereas however it used to be teams trying to pry him away from them as a young prospect because of his promise, now he’s wanted because of who he is. And the voices are only getting louder.

Many Orioles fans are starting to say that the Birds should simply trade Machado away now and get a huge return. Now I’ll grant you that he’s probably at his peak value right now (up until the beginning of spring training) on the trade market with two years of team control remaining. However I’m on record as saying that I feel this is an incredibly misguided way of thinking. It would be much better for the Orioles to committ themselves to re-signing Machado as opposed to just giving up now.

However this “story” has started to leak into the national media as well. ESPN’s Buster Olney has addressed it, among others. So…would it be better for the national media if a guy like Machado played somewhere else besides Baltimore?

It goes without saying. For whatever reason, the league doesn’t see fit to give a team like the Orioles a lot of national television exposure. This has nothing to do with success or lack thereof – the O’s have more regular season wins than any other franchise from 2012 onward. But the fact is that we don’t see them in the national spotlight very often…

…and I’m speaking almost exclusively about Sunday Night Baseball. Yes the league has national telecasts on Monday and Wednesday nights on ESPN, and yes there are regional/national games on Saturdays via FOX. But let’s face it; Sunday Night Baseball is MLB’s equivilant to Monday Night Football. And for whatever reason, be it political or due to market size, we don’t see the Orioles on those telecasts too often.

So could the national media perhaps put more of a spotlight on a guy like Manny Machado if he played for another team? Obviously I’m suggesting a team such as New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc. The answer is yes. And by a longshot at that.

Obviously the national media really has no say in the matter. But it wouldn’t surprise me to start seeing pieces written about how the Orioles should consider trading Machado among other guys, so as to get a big haul in return. If Machado were traded to the LA Dodgers as an example, national writers such as Olney would be able to cover him easier, and make him even more into a household name than he already is.

I’m not saying that any of this is definitely happening. But the fact is that national media members have a stake in where a guy of his caliber plays, because they have a job to do just like the rest of us. And anything that makes that job easier for them is going to be something they’ll want to explore.

Baltimore Orioles: No news is good news

No news can sometimes be good news if you’re the Baltimore Orioles. And let me preface this by saying that you should take that comment literally. I mean…there really is no news about the Orioles right now. Makes my job a lot tougher!

Many fans are still trying to wrap their heads around the Mark Trumbo sweepstakes, and the fact is that he’s still out there on the open market. However that’s part of my point in saying the no news bit – nobody else is doing anything either.

Fans complain that the team isn’t doing anything, and that’s something that I do understand. However right now teams are just trying to jockey their offers and so forth. Would it really pay for the Orioles to make a big splash right now when everyone else is just intent on cruising into the holiday season?

Yes, you might argue that with nobody else doing anything they could go under the radar – for Trumbo or anyone else. However if they wait until after the first of the year, I suspect the price might go down. That’s a strategic mark post of the off season. So if anything making a move now would cost them.

So yes, no news is good news for the Orioles. With regard to other teams signing people, that is. Everyone else seems okay with heading into the holidays and standing pat. The Orioles should as well.

Baltimore Orioles: Are more risks necessary to be taken?

The Baltimore Orioles don’t take risks when it coes to player personnel for the most part. And heres the thing; I respect that about them. These days it seems that playing it safe just for the sake of playing it safe is considered to be bad. People seem to want you to be out there taking risks and putting it all on the line.

And that’s all fine and dandy – so long as it works out. If it doesn’t work out, you’re really up a creek without a paddle. And in case you haven’t noticed, the general public isn’t exactly the most forgiving type when it comes to things that don’t work out.

Basically fans are clammoring for the Orioles to take a risk such as getting a top-of-the-line starter for big money. And in theory that sounds great; why wouldn’t they want to do that? Well, because it’s a risk.

When you look at the likes of Jimenez and Gallardo, those two signings didn’t exactly work out how the Orioles wanted them to. Now they’d be the first to tell you that they’re a far cry from the likes of a top line starter, however you get the point. When you commit that kind of money to a guy and it doesn’t work out, you tend to not want to go down that road again.

Again, I agree with this to an extent. It’s very easy to say this when it’s not your money and you aren’t the one putting your neck out on the line. And it’s not just signing players in and of itself; the Orioles don’t take risks on injuries among other things. Their critiques of physicals is well-known. However they’ve also tended to be right.

But by not taking risks, are the Orioles in a sense running a huge risk? There is such a concept as playing not to lose. In this case, they’re playing not to lose with regard to the off season and with money. They don’t want a player to turn into dead money if he doesn’t work out. But in spending on role players and watching superstars go elsewhere, are the O’s actually running a higher risk?

That might be a bit overly harsh, because the O’s have their share of superstars. But they’re unwilling to committ big money long-term to get a top line pitcher. But does that leave them at a disadvantage? While they’re winning financially, does that lack of willingness to take a risk hurt them on the field?

Tough to say. Again, you only get praised for taking a risk if it works out in your favor. Otherwise it’s a stupid move. Look at Gallardo and Jimenez; those signings were widely praised by writers like me across the local and national media. Howeve suddenly because the players struggled they don’t look so great. Nevermind the fact that they didn’t cost the Orioles too much, but fans are angry that those players are on the roster.

Heck, there are people out there who say that re-signing Davis was a bad move at this point. Mainly because he strikes out so much, however we all know what happens when he gets in contact with a ball. At the end of the day, it’s a catch-22 either way. Which is why the Orioles are probably smart just protecting what they’ve got for the time being.

Baltimore Orioles pull Mark Trumbo offeer off the table

According to multiple sources, the Baltimore Orioles have pulled their now former offer to free agent slugger Mark Trumbo off the table. So officially, the Birds are now out of the Trumbo sweepstakes. However this doesn’t mean that the negotiating is over; often this type of move is simply a negotiating tactic. At least that’s how it was with Chris Davis last year.

Right around this time in fact, the Birds pulled their offer to Davis. He ended up signing anywys, in February. Colorado appears to be another team that has heavy interest in Trumbo, although it’s believed that the O’s had the best offer on the table.

I’ll be honest, I’m a bit surprised that Trumbo’s still out there. I would have thought for sure that some team would have already snatched him up. Towards the end of the regular season I thought it was going to be Boston. With Ortiz retiring I figured they were going to need a DH – and Trumbo would have slid into their lineup almost perfectly.

But if Boston’s kicked the tires on Trumbo at all, it’s been kept under wraps. However I just figured that someone would have snatched him up by now. At what point does the price start to go down a bit?

Again, it’s believed that the Orioles’ offer was the best one on the table up to that point. Obviously Trumbo and his agent feel that if they wait long enough someone (possibly the Orioles) will give them a better offer. It’s almost like a game of chicken in a way.

The Orioles were always going to make an offer on Trumbo, but with him still on the market they started to believe they could get him. So naturally they don’t want to wake up one morning and find out that he signed elsewhere. But obviously a lot of other teams are wary of his age and the potential for reduced production as well. Tie will tell.

I’ll be surprised if Trumbo has to wait until February to find a team like Davis did. I’m still shocked that Davis had to wait that long. But then again, I also thought Trumbo would have signed somewhere by this point. So you never know. Will the Orioles make a new offer at some point? I suspect they will. Does that mean Trumbo will return to Baltimore? That’s still very much up in the air.

Baltimore Orioles: The march to spring training

Let’s keep this short today. The Baltimore Orioles may already be planning for spring training. It’s coming, folks – deal with it!

The Orioles will report to Sarasota approximately two weeks after the Super Bowl. Grapefruit League play will begin approximately two weeks after that. As I said, it’s coming, and the clock is ticking. Have a nice day, folks – big games in the NFL today!