Baltimore Orioles: Fundamentals cannot overpower analytics

The Baltimore Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano lost tonight’s game almost before it started. The Orioles have been caught in this tug-of-war between sound baseball and analytics all season, and it reared its ugly head tonight. It’s fair to point out that the game was meaningless for the O’s, but needless to say it’s still a regular season game. Sugano’s line: 3.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K.

Sugano allowed two base runners with two outs in the first inning; one was Judge on a seeing-eye single. The other was Bellinger on a softly-hit bloop single. Stanton followed with a three-run homer, and the Orioles trailed 3-0.

The seeing-eye single…that happens. Those sorts of things have happened to the Orioles a lot this year, but you can’t really defend against them – per se. I’ll come back to that. However as I’ve said all year, you can’t play your outfield as deep as the Orioles have all year, everything else be damned. They persistently play a no doubles defense; and I get it…you want to prevent an extra-base hit. But you’re surrendering those bloop hits that are dropping in because the outfielders are deeper.

And that’s been a HUGE problem for this team all year. I have no doubt that the probability of scoring a run goes way up after an extra-base hit. But when you’re allowing fluky things to grant the opposition base runners, I suspect the probability is even greater. Playing no doubles defense up two runs in the ninth inning may be one thing. But it shouldn’t be the norm.

Judge would tack on a fourth inning solo homer, and RBI-singles in the fifth and sixth by Chisholm and Grisham in the fifth and sixth. Coby Mayo would get the Birds on the board in the seventh with an RBI-double. This in a losing effort as New York took this one, 6-1.

I mention fluky plays above. Seeing-eye singles fall into that category. YES, sometimes they just happen. But all season, the Orioles have nibbled on the corners of the zone. They’ve never felt comfortable attacking the strike zone. Granted, their rotation has mainly been on the IL – and in some instances still is. But they’ve been relentless in their approach of not throwing the ball over the plate as much.

When you relentlessly nibble, you leave yourself vulnerable to a few things. First off, umpires don’t really seem to appreciate it. They recognize that a team is trying to fool people, including them. So if it’s borderline, the umpire is probably inclined to give the hitter the benefit of the doubt. How often have we seen that this year?

Secondly however, opponents aren’t stupid; they can see what you’re trying to do. They’ll either take the walk eventually, OR if they do make contact something strange could happen. The first inning Judge bleeder was in the strike zone, but in the lower in quadrant. Judge found a way to get to it, put it in play, and something fluky occurred.

The subsequent Bellinger bloop single was low and well out of the strike zone. It was challenging for Bellinger to get to it, but he did. And it induced soft contact. And with the Oriole outfield so far back, they had no chance. All that with two outs.

To be fair, the Orioles have been nibblers going back years. Remember the 2015 ALCS against Kansas City? That was lost on solid pitching by KC, but also timely bloop hits and broken bat singles. Are those things fluky? Absolutely. Can you induce fluky things? Now there’s a question.

The series concludes tomorrow at Camden Yards. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the Orioles, and he’ll be opposed by New York’s Cam Schlittler. Game time is set for just after 1:30 PM.

Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Rogers out-gems New York

Trevor Rogers further cemented himself as the Baltimore Orioles most consistent pitcher this season. In potentially his final start at home in 2026, Rogers silenced a Bronx Bomber lineup that was on fire last night. Rogers’ line: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K.

The O’s got on the board early and took charge of the scoreboard. Ryan Mountcastle smacked a solo home run in the second. The Orioles led 1-0, but knew that wouldn’t be enough.

After a New York error, the O’s had two runners on in the sixth. Ryan Mountcastle’s sacrifice fly drove home a second run. Samuel Basallo later grounded into a force out which scored a run, and ran the score to 3-0.

However New York’s Chisholm came up with a runner on in the 8th, and he smacked a two-run homer. That tightened things up, and it left the O’s with no leeway or insurance. That remained the case until Gunnar Henderson’s RBI-double extended the lead in the eighth. Keegan Akin closed the game in the ninth, giving the Birds a 4-2 win.

The series continues tomorrow night at Camden Yards. Tomoyuki Sugano gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by New York’s Carlos Rondon. Game time is set for just after 7 PM.

Baltimore Orioles blanked in opener with New York

The Baltimore Orioles find themselves in the unfortunate spot of playing out a string against teams in their own division who are in contention. Cade Povich got the start against New York tonight, in the first game of the final homestand of the season. Povich’s line: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 5 K.

Povich allowed two base runners to lead off the game, both of whom scored on Rosario’s two-RBI double. In the fifth Wells extended the lead to 3-0 with an RBI-single. The thing about that play? Yet another run on soft contact. Oriole opponents have had that knack all year.

New York broke the game wide open in the seventh. Goldschmidt’s RBI-single expanded the lead to 4-0. Judge would later add a sac fly-RBI, and Stanton a two-RBI double. The O’s were unable to muster much against New York and their starter, Fried. And they fell on this night at Camden Yards, 7-0.

The series continues tomorrow night at Camden Yards. Trevor Rogers gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by New York’s Will Warren. Game time is set for just after 7 PM.

Baltimore Orioles: Holding on for dear life

Dean Kremer had a rough beginning in Chicago last night for the Baltimore Orioles. A rough beginning. He quickly stabilized and qualified for the win. Kremer’s line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K.

Those two runs constituted the rough beginning. He surrendered a two-run home run to Teel in the first inning. But he quickly righted the ship. And the Birds evened things up in the third on an RBI-double by Jeremiah Jackson, and an RBI-single by Gunnar Henderson.

The O’s took the lead an inning later. Samuel Basallo’s two-run homer put them ahead 4-2. And the O’s added on from there. Gunnar Henderson, who had a productive day, smacked an RBI-single in the fifth. He later scored on Dylan Beavers’ RBI-triple.

Dylan Beavers gave the O’s some insurance in the seventh with a two-run homer. They were up 6-2 at the time. That home run ran it to 8-2. And they needed every one of those eight runs.

Reliever Chayce McDermott surrendered a run in the eighth on a wild pitch. Later in the inning Sosa’s two-RBI single cut the Orioles’ lead to 8-5. Tack on a two-run homer by Benintendi, and suddenly that big lead was down to one at 8-7.

Suddenly that Beavers two-run homer loomed large. Chicago put the tying run at the plate in the last of the ninth, but Keegan Akin got a big strikeout with two down, ending the game. It was closer than it needed to be in the end, But it’s a win.

The series concludes this afternoon at Rate Field, Tyler Wells gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Chicago’s Martin Perez. Game time is set for just after 2 PM.

Baltimore Orioles lifted by Colton Cowser

The Baltimore Orioles limped into the south side of Chicago last night after being swept by Toronto over the weekend. In the baddest part of town, Kyle Bradish got the start in the first game of three at Rate Field. Bradish’s line: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 9 H.

Bradish allowed a leadoff walk in the first inning. Only problem was that ball four should have been strike three. Only problem a full count, Bradish appeared to hit the strike zone. But home plate umpire Chad Whitson called it a ball. That runner would later score on Mead’s RBI-single.

That’s sort of a microcosm of how things have gone for the O’s this year. Now it might be fair to say that Oriole pitchers (including Bradish last night) have shied away from totally attacking the strike zone. And maybe umpires aren’t taking kindly to guys trying to gerrymander their way into strikes in a sense. However a strike should be a strike.

But two can play at that game – walks, that is. The O’s put two on by way of a base on balls in the third. Jeremiah Jackson’s RBI-single would tie the game at one.

The O’s would also get two on in the sixth, one on a walk and another on a base hit. That brought Colton Cowser to the plate, who proceeded to smack a three-run homer. That gave the Birds a 4-1 lead, and put Bradish in line for the win.

And the Oriole bullpen delivered that win. They didn’t allow a base runner the rest of the way. After nine, the O’s had themselves a win.

The series continues this evening at Rate Field. Dean Kremer gets the start for the Orioles, and he’ll be opposed by Chicago’s Shane Smith. Game time is set for just after 7:30 PM.

Baltimore Orioles continually haunted by soft contact

Albert Suarez may have been the highlight of the day this afternoon for the Baltimore Orioles in the series finale in Toronto. The O’s went with a bullpen game, so Suarez didn’t last long. But he was probably the highlight of the day. Suarez’s line: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K.

Coby Mayo’s solo home run in the second inning gave the O’s a 1-0 lead. Toronto tied it in the third on an RBI-double by Springer. This on a double that split the outfielders, as countless others have done this season. In the fourth Toronto benefitted by two infield base hits – you guessed it, softly hit.

However Clement’s subsequent two-RBI double wasn’t. He hit a screaming line drive off the third base bag, giving Toronto the lead at 3-1. That may not have been softly hit, but it was definitely to the Orioles’ misfortune. And opposing teams taking advantage of the Orioles’ luck is as much what this year has been about as anything else.

Springer’s solo homer in the fifth and Loprofido’s RBI-double in the sixth extended the lead to 5-1. The O’s would get one back in the seventh on Colton Cowser’s solo home run. You have to hope that puts some wind into Cowser’s bat going into Chicago tomorrow.

However Toronto would put six on the board in the seventh. Many of them on softly-hit bloops, or infield the infield. The precision with which opponents seem to work their way into that sort of thing is noteworthy. Personally I fully buy into the adage that sometimes you have to tip your cap. But it’s almost as if you get punished for doing it too much, or taking that attitude too strongly.

And I stand by that – sometimes you have to tip your cap. It’s just tough to do when there’s the appearance that opponents are simply putting contact on the ball and everything else is working out. And on the flip side, all season long we’ve seen the Orioles scorch the ball at times…only to have it fall into someone’s glove.

The Orioles now head to Chicago for the first of three against the ChiSox at Rate Field. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Chicago’s Sean Burke. Game time is set for just after 7:30 PM.

Baltimore Orioles: Insurance wasn’t enough

Baltimore Orioles’ fans have to tip their caps to Tomoyuki Sugano today. The guy battled – and dominated. And after getting hit with a comebacker early in the game against Toronto, he left with the lead. Sugano’s line: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K.

A first inning RBI- double by Gunnar Henderson and a subsequent RBI-groundout by Tyler O’Neill gave the O’s a 2-0 lead. The bottom of that first inning was tough for Sugano given the aforementioned comebacker. But he got out of it. Albert Suarez briefly warmed in the bullpen in the top of the second, but Sugano stayed in. And again, he was fairly dominant.

Susan would surrender solo home run to Berger in the fifth. That got Toronto on the board, and cut the lead to 2-1. For most of the game the tenor seemed to be that the Orioles were holding on for dear life. However the got an insurance run in the eighth on an RBI-double by Samuel Basallo. Incidentally that was set up by an astute Gunnar Henderson stealing a base after two disengagements, and a swinging bunt for a base hit.

Yet, Toronto threatened on the eighth. And big time at that. Kirk’s pinch-hit RBI single cut the lead to 3-2. Suddenly the O’s needed more insurance….and they got it. Coby Mayo’s solo homer on the ninth extended the lead to 4-2.

However insurance only gets you so far. One thing led to another, including a Keegan Akin throwing error, snd Toronto loaded the bases in the ninth. Back-to/back RBI-singles tied the game at four. Kirk’s subsequent sac fly-RBI won it for Toronto, 5-4.

As I said, insurance only gets you so far. If you’re up 10 and the opponents gets 11, that wasn’t enough. On top of that, the O’s are appearing to be making tomorrow’s series finale a bullpen game.

The series concludes tomorrow afternoon at Rogers Centre. Albert Suarez gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Toronto’s Shane Bieber. Game time is set for just after 1:30 PM

Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Rogers exits early in loss

The Baltimore Orioles went north of the border last night for the second and final time this year. Trevor Rogers got the start, and was semi-effective – while in the game. Rogers’ line: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 6 K.

Samuel Basallo led off the third with a double, and would later score on Jackson Holliday’s RBI-single. This gave the O’s a 1-0 lead, and the Birds appeared to be cooking. However Toronto pitching held them off the board the rest of the way.

Rogers recorded two quick outs in the fifth before issuing a walk. Nothing good ever happens after a walk of course, and Guerrero followed with a single to Colton Cowser in center. The ball got by Cowser, allowing the runner to score and tie the game,

However Rogers left the game after completing that fifth inning with the game tied. We later found out that he had toe discomfort – a blister under the toenail, Given all the other injuries this year, you hear that and you think to yourself, because of course he had something like that!

Toronto would take the lead in the sixth in Rogers’ absence on a run-scoring double by Straw. One inning later Clements’ RBI-single extended the lead to 3-1. Before the game ended Toronto would push it to a 6-1 final with three in the last of the eighth.

The series continues this afternoon at Rogers Centre. Tomoyuki Sugano gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Toronto’s Max Scherzer. Game time is set for just after 3 PM.

Baltimore Orioles: Another walk off win

Tyler Wells and the Baltimore Orioles came into tonight’s game against Pittsburgh having won three of four games straight in walk off fashion. On a cool and misty night at Camden Yards, the goal was to win it in nine this time around. The Birds would fail at that, but big deal. Wells’ line: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K.

The O’s fell behind 1-0 on a fourth inning solo home run by Horowitz. – a Baltimore-area native, by the way. Apparently his family is unable to attend this series due to being out of town for a wedding. Tough pill to swallow!

The Orioles would tie the game in the eighth with two runners on and runners at first and second. Jackson Holliday would dump in a flare that fell for an RBI-single. That tied the game at four.

The game went to extra innings, which wasn’t a surprise. As sure as grass is green, the O’s had to win yet another in walk off fashion. With two runners on in the tenth and nobody out, Daniel Johnson laid down a sac bunt. Not only that, but he placed it perfectly and legged out a bunt single. That loaded the bases, and the O’s eventually walked Pittsburgh off with a run-scoring single by Dylan Beavers.

The Orioles have now taken the first two from Pittsburgh. It’s also the fourth walkoff in five games for the Orioles. Needless to say, they’re feeling it.

The series concludes tomorrow afternoon at Camden Yards. Cade Povich gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Pittsburgh’s Johan Oviedo. Game time is set for just after 1 PM.

Baltimore Orioles: A strange walk off is still a win

Kyle Bradish was phenomenal for the Baltimore Orioles tonight against Pittsburgh at Camden Yards. Bradish of course has been strong since his recent return to play, and he’s shown that he’ll be the Orioles’ ace going into 2026. Bradish’s line: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K.

The lone run that Bradish surrendered was an RBI-single by McCutchen in the first. However the Birds put a few runners on base in the hole half of the inning, and they tied it with a sac fly-RBI by Ryan Mountcastle. They would later take the lead in the last of the sixth on a solo home run by Jeremiah Jackson.

That lead held up until the eleventh hour. Yennier Cano came on the close the game in the ninth, and surrendered a solo home run to Pham in the top of the ninth. The Orioles got out of the inning with no further damage, however that sent the game to extra innings tied at two.

One thing; the Orioles should take something forward from this game, in terms of how NOT to do things. Teams get a ghost runner in extra innings, so Pittsburgh led off the tenth with a walk – putting runners at first and second. Conventional wisdom says that you move the runners over there. Instead Horowitz swung away, and grounded into a double-play. That was instrumental in the Orioles getting out of the inning.

I’m not sure if there’s some stat which said that they had a chance at getting Horowitz out that was less than other guys, but either way Pittsburgh went against conventional wisdom. And it almost bit them there.

Going into the last of the eleventh the O’s started with the ghost runner at second. Following a base hit, Pittsburgh walked Ryan Mountcastle to load the bases for Samuel Basallo. To be clear, there is an advantage to having a force at every base. But is it worth loading the bases with nobody out in extra innings?

Pittsburgh felt it was a risk worth running, because they did it. That brought Samuel Basallo to the plate with the bases loaded and nobody out. He sent a soft flair down the left field line. Pham made a diving attempt at the ball, but it ticked off his glove and rolled foul…

…or did it? The Orioles were out of challenges, but they asked for a crew chief review. Replays were conclusive in my view; the ball hit Pham’s glove, and hit the foul line. That means the ball was fair, and the umpire overturned the call. Since the bases were loaded, the lead runner was given home plate. And the Orioles walked off as 3-2 winners.

Analytics probably told Pittsburgh to load the bases there. And again, there’s an argument to be made for it. But had there not been a force at every base, the umpires would have had to place the runners. Now odds are the lead runner still would have been awarded home plate. But that’s at the umpire’s discretion. And you never know how that will go.

The series continues tomorrow evening at Camden Yards. Tyler Wells gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes. Game time is set for just after 6:30 PM.