Baltimore Orioles: Continued struggles with analytics?

The Baltimore Orioles debuted their new “city connect” uniforms this evening against San Francisco at Camden Yards. With Shane Baz on the mound, sadly the results were largely similar to what we saw out of the previous city connect jerseys. Baz’s line: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K.

Baz seemed to cruise through the early innings of the game. However a third inning homer to Adames seemed to spook him. The interesting thing is that every pitch in that at-bat was on the outside corner. Every pitch. The final of which went for a home run. Might that be over-analyzing data?

One inning later Ramos would tack on an RBI-single, bringing Adames back to the plate later in the inning. Baz kept him in the ballpark this time, however he did rip an RBI-double which extended the lead to 3-1. The Orioles’ lone run would come in the bottom of that fourth inning, with an RBI-double by Leody Tavares.

San Francisco would tack two on, including one on another solo homer by Lee in the sixth. The Birds however did mount a small rally, in the form of a Gunnar Henderson two-run homer in the last of the ninth. However if not for the additional San Francisco runs, obviously it’s a different game.

It wasn’t the Orioles’ night, but they a there more than that going on? There were multiple at-bats where Oriole pitching (both Baz and the bullpen) stayed in the same half or quadrant of the plate. That’s evidenced by the MLB pitch track. Granted, scouting reports and spray charts play a role there. However the fact that the Orioles are married to these charts and reports is the worst-kept secret in sports.

Contrast that with various Oriole at-bats where guys got steady diets of pitches all over the plate. Many of these ended up being strikeouts, ground ball double-plays, etc. Why? Because you have to sprinkle in feel for the game with analytics. If you can do that, you’ll probably see decent results – in short, keeping guys guessing. But when you pitch only to a chart, all the opponent needs to do is look at their own chart. And they’ll know what to expect.

The series continues tomorrow at Camden Yards. Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Orioles, and he’ll be opposed by San Francisco’s Logan Webb. Game time is set for 7:15 PM.

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