The Baltimore Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano lost tonight’s game almost before it started. The Orioles have been caught in this tug-of-war between sound baseball and analytics all season, and it reared its ugly head tonight. It’s fair to point out that the game was meaningless for the O’s, but needless to say it’s still a regular season game. Sugano’s line: 3.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K.
Sugano allowed two base runners with two outs in the first inning; one was Judge on a seeing-eye single. The other was Bellinger on a softly-hit bloop single. Stanton followed with a three-run homer, and the Orioles trailed 3-0.
The seeing-eye single…that happens. Those sorts of things have happened to the Orioles a lot this year, but you can’t really defend against them – per se. I’ll come back to that. However as I’ve said all year, you can’t play your outfield as deep as the Orioles have all year, everything else be damned. They persistently play a no doubles defense; and I get it…you want to prevent an extra-base hit. But you’re surrendering those bloop hits that are dropping in because the outfielders are deeper.
And that’s been a HUGE problem for this team all year. I have no doubt that the probability of scoring a run goes way up after an extra-base hit. But when you’re allowing fluky things to grant the opposition base runners, I suspect the probability is even greater. Playing no doubles defense up two runs in the ninth inning may be one thing. But it shouldn’t be the norm.
Judge would tack on a fourth inning solo homer, and RBI-singles in the fifth and sixth by Chisholm and Grisham in the fifth and sixth. Coby Mayo would get the Birds on the board in the seventh with an RBI-double. This in a losing effort as New York took this one, 6-1.
I mention fluky plays above. Seeing-eye singles fall into that category. YES, sometimes they just happen. But all season, the Orioles have nibbled on the corners of the zone. They’ve never felt comfortable attacking the strike zone. Granted, their rotation has mainly been on the IL – and in some instances still is. But they’ve been relentless in their approach of not throwing the ball over the plate as much.
When you relentlessly nibble, you leave yourself vulnerable to a few things. First off, umpires don’t really seem to appreciate it. They recognize that a team is trying to fool people, including them. So if it’s borderline, the umpire is probably inclined to give the hitter the benefit of the doubt. How often have we seen that this year?
Secondly however, opponents aren’t stupid; they can see what you’re trying to do. They’ll either take the walk eventually, OR if they do make contact something strange could happen. The first inning Judge bleeder was in the strike zone, but in the lower in quadrant. Judge found a way to get to it, put it in play, and something fluky occurred.
The subsequent Bellinger bloop single was low and well out of the strike zone. It was challenging for Bellinger to get to it, but he did. And it induced soft contact. And with the Oriole outfield so far back, they had no chance. All that with two outs.
To be fair, the Orioles have been nibblers going back years. Remember the 2015 ALCS against Kansas City? That was lost on solid pitching by KC, but also timely bloop hits and broken bat singles. Are those things fluky? Absolutely. Can you induce fluky things? Now there’s a question.
The series concludes tomorrow at Camden Yards. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the Orioles, and he’ll be opposed by New York’s Cam Schlittler. Game time is set for just after 1:30 PM.
Birdland Crush 