Tomoyuki Sugano has been the Baltimore Orioles’ best pitcher this year – a rookie. Granted Sugano’s a veteran of the game having played in Japan, but this is his first year in MLB. He started July off last night in Texas similar to how he ended June; Sugano’s line: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 5 K.
Sugano got zero run support, which certainly isn’t his fault. However Sugano had a 2.79 ERA in April, 3.48 in May, and a 6.28 in June. Now he’s started July with an ERA of 11.57. While he’s been good, that’s trending in the wrong direction.
Sugano surrendered a three-run homer to Semien in the last of the third. One inning later Duran’s two-RBI single extended the lead to 5-0. Seager’s solo homer in the fifth brought it to 6-0. And that’s all Texas needed. All off of Sugano.
So the question is has the league figured Sugano out? To some degree that appears to be the case. At the very least, they’ve adjusted to him. He now has to adjust back. Or more so, Drew French and Tony Mansolino need to help him to adjust.
Or is it more complex than that? We all know the Orioles’ at times insistence that analytics be used at every stage. The Semien homer came on a sweeper that was in the meaty part of the zone. So to some degree the result is to be expected – Sugano was obviously pitching-to-contact.
The Duran two-RBI single came on a sweeper that was in the zone, but VERY low-and-away. As low-and-away as it could possibly be. The Seager homer was on a splitter that was also low-and-away. Those are hardly pitches that should have been hit the way they were based on their location – unless the hitter knew where the pitch was going to be.
The book on the Orioles is that they ARE the book. I’ve written about the possibility of people tipping pitches, which I do think is somewhat probable. But it’s almost like opponents can read how their at-bats are going to go using the same tools the Orioles do.
Consequently, how often do we notice balls sleeking through the infield? Could it be because the top brass insists so much that the infield has to be played in such-and-such a way, and all teams have to do is tweak their hitting to put the ball in play elsewhere? On the flip side, the Orioles make loud outs at the plate. Because opponents know they either can’t or won’t adjust their hitting approaches. So they can position themselves perfectly.
Opponents are using the Orioles’ game plan against them. We see them getting on base due to soft contact. And yes, at times that’s fluky and it’s not necessarily the goal. But next time you see the Orioles in person, look at how deep their outfielders play. They’re slightly deeper than other teams position their outfielders. That’s obviously due to analytics, and it sets the tone for bloop singles to drop in.
Birdland Crush 