It’s interesting that it’s the Baltimore Orioles who seem to be turning the concept of analytics on its head. Not in the manner that that one would think, however. More on that later. Detroit got to starter Cade Povich early. Povich’s line: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 6 K.
Detroit was going to start Sawyer Gibson-Long. But they switched that up and used Brant Hurter as an “opener.” Detroit did this to the Orioles last year, and earlier in 2025. And it’s been especially effective given the Orioles’ inability to hit left-handed pitching.
Hurter is a righty, so the Orioles set their lineup prepared to hit the starter. Then he leaves the game, surrendering to a righty. The lineup is already set to hit a southpaw, and there‘a nothing the Orioles can do about it. Save for figuring out how to hit lefties.
McKinstry tripled in the second, which led to Perez’s sac fly-RBI. But the O’s did tie the score. Gunnar Henderson’s RBI- single in the last of the third knotted things up at one.
However it unraveled quickly. And you almost didn’t see it coming. Baez’s RBI-single in the fourth gave Detroit the lead back. One inning later Detroit got an RBI-single by Dingler, and a two-run home run by Torkelson. Needless to say, they’re a pesky bunch.
The Orioles did attempt a late rally. Adley Rutschman followed a Jackson Holliday double (followed by a wild pitch advancing Holliday to third) with a sac fly-RBI. Following a walk Ryan O’Hearn went to a 3-0 count, before taking ball four…
…in theory. Home plate umpire Alex Tosi called a pitch that was well outside (and low) strike one. O’Hern fouled the next pitch off, and swung through the following pitch for strike three (ending the inning).
On top of everything else, not even borderline pitches went against the Birds. The only reason O’Hearn swung at either of the last two pitches was because he had no choice. In his mind the home plate umpire had already proven that everything was a strike. So it was swing or get caught looking. To his credit, O’Hearn didn’t say a word – he glared angrily at the home plate umpire and walked away.
Jordan Westburg would smack a solo homer in the ninth to narrow the lead to 5-3. That didn’t really help the O’s in terms of the game, however it helped Westburg’s confidence. Tonight was his first game back from the IL.
The Orioles’ biggest issues were highlighted in this game. Again, they’re turning analytics on its head. They’re so committed to what the computer is saying to do, other teams are finding ways around that. The computer says you struggle against southpaws. So the opponent pitches a southpaw for a brief period, and you set your lineup accordingly.
In short, opponents are outsmarting the Orioles. In a certain sense, how are you going to improve against lefties if you only face them in a controlled environment designed to not let you fail? Again, Detroit has done this to the Orioles before (among other teams). They’re playing to their opponents’ weaknesses. And it’s working.
In the AL East world, the team with more power and better pitching wins. So we look at an “opener” as weak. I do as well – I’m not a fan of the practice. I see it as gutless, and I see it as sleight of hand. But against a team like the Orioles who are dug into analytics at all costs, it’s working.
The series continues tomorrow night at Camden Yards. Zach Eflin gets the start for the O’s, and he’ll be opposed by Detroit’s Casey Mize. Game time is set for just after 6:30 PM.
Birdland Crush 