Baltimore Orioles: Should the Birds have run the risk?

It would have been tough to pitch better than Dean Kremer did tonight for the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched to a quality start. Yet the O’s still fell. Kremer’s line: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R (1 earned), 2 BB, 7 K.

That’s a quality start, if you’re keeping track at home. And it’s a darned shame to waste it. But that’s baseball.

Emmanuel Rivera smacked a solo homer in the third inning. However as quickly as he gave the Birds the lead, he turned it back in. He committed a throwing error with a runner in scoring position in the bottom of the inning, allowing Boston to tie the score at one. Rafaela would tack on an RBI-single in the fourth to give Boston the lead at 2-1.

Despite a few opportunities, the Orioles couldn’t tie the score. That is until the eighth. Anthony Santander smacked his 41st home run of the season, tying the game at two. It was late, but it counted. And the game went to extras.

The Birds took a 3-2 lead, again thanks to Emmanuel Rivera. His run-scoring single in the tenth (thanks to the ghost runner) put the Orioles in the lead. However Boston got a ghost runner also in the tenth. With one out, Jackson Holliday misplayed a grounder to him at second. Maybe he misjudged and could have thrown the runner out at first. In my view he did the right thing by eating it…

…a bad throw would have tied the game. No reason to run the risk. That left runners at the corners, with O’Neil coming to the plate.

The Orioles had the option of walking O’Neil. It was a consideration. Brandon Hyde opted to pitch to him, and he hit a walk off three-run homer. Meaning the Orioles fell, 5-3.

Many will criticize that decision. And based on the results, that’s fair. But sometimes you have to play the numbers. First off, O’Neil’s hitting .258 this year. The hitter behind him (Yoshida), was hitting .287. So they pitched to the more attractive hitter – from the pitcher’s perspective.

Furthermore, when you’re on the road in the bottom of an inning, putting the winning run in scoring position comes off as a big no-no. Any number of things could happen; wild pitches, bloop singles, seeing eye singles, etc. All of those things could be in play. Now that said, so would be a potential ground ball double-play. However that was the case with runners at the corners also.

End of the day, I think you have to run a risk-reward sort of analysis in your mind. You’re putting your eggs in the basket of a ground ball double-play induced by Keegan Akin, or two strikeouts. On top of that, anything ground ball in the infield comes with risk – an error throws a wrinkle into things. Again on the other hand, bases loaded puts a force at every base.

Instead, Brandon Hyde opted to pitch to O’Neil. The results of course say he made the right decision. However he put O’Neil in a circumstance where he had to get on base to win the game. He got on base and then some. He have O’Neil one option to extend the game – or end it. And needless to say, he ended it.

Leave a Comment